NJ Hits Highest COVID-19 Weekly Case Totals As Key Metrics Jump

NEW JERSEY – A new report says key metrics in the coronavirus crisis have risen sharply across New Jersey this past week as the Garden State now is reporting its highest weekly case totals ever, exceeding even the worst days of the pandemic's first wave in March and April.

Gov. Phil Murphy also said the numbers show that further reopenings are "not in the cards" until the state is able to expand its vaccination program and bring the coronavirus spread under control.

"Our first priority is to vaccinate those at higher risk for severe COVID due to age and chronic health factors – and to have the infrastructure in place to rapidly scale up distribution when federal supply meets demand," Murphy said this weekend.

Murphy reported 4,686 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, capping a week when New Jersey averaged 5,586 cases a day. The weekly average is 1,000 higher than the highest single day of COVID-19 cases during the spring: 4,391 on April 17th.

He also reported that New Jersey had 26 more confirmed deaths – far below the worst days of March and April when the daily fatality numbers were in the hundreds. But January is on track to become New Jersey's deadliest month since the spring after having five consecutive days – Jan. 5th through 9th – of 100 cases or more.

Hospitalizations have risen past 3,700, the highest number since the spring.

Here is the timeline of cases:

The state Department of Health's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus case levels rose from "moderate" to "high" over the two months in all 21 New Jersey counties. Other metrics have also risen sharply (see below).

Murphy has expressed a willingness to give bars and restaurants more freedom amid the coronavirus as they struggle – even as a number of businesses plan to go to court to limit the governor's power over COVID-19 decisions. Read more: Gov. Murphy Defends NJ Dining Veto Amid Lawsuit Over COVID Powers

Murphy, however, still says he's not planning any reopenings until New Jersey despite the fact that business owners have had to deal with "an awful avalanche of misery."

"I think if you look at our dining reality, both indoors and outdoors, we have been as consistent as any state in America. And that's not to make restaurant owners feel good, because this has been an awful avalanche of misery. I get that," Murphy said during his Wednesday news conference.

"But when we opened up indoors on September 4th, 2020 at 25 percent, we have not wavered for one minute since then, up or down," he said. "I wish we could go up but as you can see with the numbers, that's not in the cards right now."

At the same time, state officials have suggested that they're not going to impose further shutdowns any time soon.

If the Garden State gets any worse, state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said, New Jersey's solution will be "increased testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantining."

As the weather remains cold and people stay inside, she said, the risk of transmission will continue to grow.

"Now is not the time to let your guard down," she said. "The virus has not stopped circulating."

Murphy said the COVID-19 Activity Level Report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey.

By rising to a "high" level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

Indeed, some districts have taken that step. This week, Edison Township Public schools postponed returning to hybrid learning due to the increasing number of COVID-19 positive cases. Read more: Edison School District Postpones Return To Hybrid Learning

"If you're in a very low-risk district, then you don't need to treat it quite as harshly as if you're in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher," Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health has said.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The daily new COVID-19 case rate, per 100,000 people, has spiked across New Jersey, nearly doubling in all 21 counties and plunging them into the "red," or "very high" level of this category.

Here is the case rate comparison for the weeks ending Jan. 2nd and Jan. 9th:

The rate of COVID-like illness (CLI) rose by more than 13 percent in Bergen, Essex, Hudson counties and by more than 9 percent in Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset counties in just one week. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

• Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
• COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
• Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
• The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here are the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Jan. 9th:

The state's COVID activity timeline

The Department of Health says New Jersey's statewide overall activity has been "high" since early November.

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for nearly four months. It was "high" in late in April and May, and "very high" in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

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